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The Friday File: Of the nation’s 50 busiest airports, the one with the costliest average ticket in 24Q3 is Reagan Washington National at $473, followed by Orange County John Wayne at $428, then San Francisco at $425. The cheapest is Fort Lauderdale at $252, then San Juan at $266, and Orlando at $270. Prices depend…

Twenty percent of US oil consumption is reliant on Canadian imports, because despite the fracking revolution, pipeline capacity constraints mean the Midwest/Northeast depend heavily on Canadian crude and natural gas. Furthermore, Gulf Coast/Midwest refineries are designed only to process heavy Canadian grade oil. Oh, almost 100% of canola, 85% of potash, 46% of nickel, and…

As part of reconciliation, Republicans must find $880 billion in Medicaid savings through 2035. Talk about tough. Currently Medicaid covers 72 million people. Fraud is estimated to be maximally $31 billion/year. Work requirements might save $100 billion over a decade. Reducing the 9:1 match ratio would save $561 billion through 2035, but states would have…

On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proposed separating government spending, 23.3% of GDP including Social Security, Medicare, defense, and more from GDP reports. This proposition is best avoided. Once data quality is compromised, faith in other data will be impugned, investors who finance our debt will withdraw, raising interest rates, and policy makers will be…

It’s still early, with partial data available only through January, but 25Q1 GDP estimates are tracking as low as -2.8%. Consumer spending shrank, the advance trade deficit skyrocketed to -$153.3 billion, pending home sales are at their worst level in decades, consumer/business confidence has tumbled, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen for seven straight weeks,…

The Friday File: During the 1983/84 hockey season, fighting peaked at 1.17 fights/game. From 1983/84 through 2009/10, fighting declined to 0.6 fights/game. Since then, fighting has halved again and since 2017/18 has averaged about 0.2 fights/game. It’s due to a combination of a salary cap, deep analytics, and rule changes. The comment about going to…

Despite nominal GDP growth of $4.9 trillion since 2022, there has been minimal growth in government revenues. Had the government simply allowed the revenue base to rise with nominal GDP, the deficit would be $860 billion or 37% lower than it will be in FY25. It was Biden’s debt forgiveness and IRA and CHIPS bills…

In January, the US government employed 2.4 million civilians excluding the post office. In addition to 200,000 probationary employees, 75,000 who took the deferred resignation, President Trump also ordered a hiring freeze. The government needs 200,000 hires/year to keep up with retirements, etc. It’s quite possible that government employment will fall by up to 475,000…

Following the devastating California wildfires, to speed rebuilding, Governor Newsom signed an executive order suspending environmental reviews, told state agencies to identify rules that might impede construction, and instructed bureaucrats to rush necessary permits through. Why did it take the acute loss of 15,000 homes when California faces a housing shortage in the millions? If…

While lower-income Americans struggle, the economy continues to perform well. Why? The top 10% of earners, households making above $250,000/year, are doing remarkably well. They now account for 49.7% of all spending, up from 36% in 1995, and nearly 33% of GDP. From 9/20-9/24, their spending rose 58%, spending by the bottom 80% rose 25%,…