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On one hand, small business optimism is at a post-recession high, the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP is at its lowest level since 2008, and job openings are back at pre-recession levels. On the other hand, retail sales disappointed…
Read MoreGDP growth over the next year will be largely determined by the rate of growth in gross private domestic investment. It’s composed of spending by firms on tools, machinery and factories, as well as residential construction and inventory changes. Inventories…
Read MoreA major reason why new home building has not substantially recovered is because outside of the upper classes real wages have been stagnant since the end of Great Recession. Worse, despite a rising stock market, a majority of Americans own…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Dividing the number of persons moving to a state by those moving to and moving from the state give the percentage of in-migrants. Using this method, Oregon is the most popular state with 61% of movers moving…
Read MoreLast week’s first time claims for unemployment insurance came in at 289,000, the second lowest reading since May 2000. Importantly, the claims numbers from three weeks ago, which came in at 279,000, were the absolute lowest since May 2000 (yes,…
Read MoreThe poorest fifth of all households earn 3% of aggregate income and pay 0.4% of all federal taxes. The next quintile earns 7.6% of income and pays 3.8% of taxes. The middle quintile earns 12% and pays 9.1%, the 4th…
Read MoreA cornerstone of international trade is nations that run trade surpluses can be confident that the money they acquire by running trade surpluses, almost always US dollars, will hold its purchasing power over time. If there is a move away…
Read MoreDespite fears of inflation, it’s currently benign no matter how measured. The CPI is up 2.1% year-over-year while the core CPI (which removes food and energy) is up just 1.9%. The PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is up 1.6%…
Read MoreThe Friday File: The seventh busiest and fifth longest subway system in the world is the New York City subway which had ridership of 1.7 billion in 2012 and has 368km of track. The busiest is the Tokyo system which…
Read MoreAbsent wage growth, it’s not possible to have sustained economy wide inflation. This is because it’s only increasing wages that allow people to continually pay more money for goods and services. If wages don’t rise, price for individual items can…
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