The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

While wage growth declined from 5.9%/year during 5/22 to 3.6%/year in 7/24, it’s since risen to 4%/year. While growth this high isn’t generally conducive to 2% inflation, a doubling of productivity growth to 2% makes it possible. The rise is…

While many equity investors try to time market tops and bottoms to improve returns, their results have only gotten worse since Covid. Between 1/1/2015 and 12/31/2019, market timing attempts across a variety of actively traded mutual-fund styles cost investors 0.53…

November employment growth was a hearty 227,000, and there were upward revisions totaling 56,000 to September and October. The good November result confirms the weak October result was due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. However, the unemployment rate rose…

The Friday File: U.S. theaters just had their highest grossing Thanksgiving (five-day) weekend ever, accruing over $400 million, largely driven by “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II.” Over the holiday about 30 million people saw those movies. Moreover just 25…

Almost half of U.S. government student lending goes to postgraduates even though they are 17% of all students. Moreover, since 2000 the inflation-adjusted cost of graduate studies has tripled, and the average debt load has risen by 50% to $50,000…

61% of the price of a new home is construction, including labor. Of the 61%, 56% (or 34% of the total price) is wages/salaries and 44% (or 27% of the price) is material. 7.3% of materials (or 2% of the…

While it’s still very early and the existing housing market is profoundly weak, preliminary evidence shows real estate agent commissions declining since new rules went into effect in mid-August following a landmark legal settlement. From mid-August through early October, average…

Through 7/14/24, YTD sales volume of private label food and beverage (F&B) items were up 3%, while value priced and mainstream F&B products were both down 1%. Conversely, premium F&B foodstuffs were up 2%, and super-premium labels were up 4%.…

The Friday File: Economists have recently found that the rise of recreational marijuana laws (RML) over roughly the past decade has resulted in an increased number of grocery store trips that involve the purchase of junk food including snacks, cookies,…

The cost of Thanksgiving dinner has declined again! The inflation-adjusted cost of dinner for 10 peaked in 2022 at $67.84. It fell to $62.76 in 2023 and $58.08 in 2024. The decline was led by turkey, which decreased 6.14%, sweet…