The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

The Friday File: I am frequently asked about books to read so here are a few recommendations that have withstood the test of time. Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson, World Order…

Since 1874, a period of 151 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 9.4%. The median return is between 0%-10% and the modal return, the return that is most common, is between 10%-15%. For 2025, the consensus predicts…

Y-o-Y home price appreciation, according to the Case-Shiller National Index, was 4.2% in October, down from 4.6% in September, and 5.2% in August. It’s now been slowing Y-o-Y for seven straight months; appreciation is returning to its pre-Covid norm. As…

Many economic pundits are excited that the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key manufacturing index, jumped to 49.3 (anything under 50 is contractionary) reaching its second-best reading since late 2022. Hold on to the corded kitchen telephone. It’s up because EV…

From 1999-2007, median family wealth was $50,000. From 2008 through 2014 it doubled to $100,000, where it remained through 2018. From 2019 through 2022 it vacillated substantially but nonetheless rose to $125,000. However, starting in 2023 through the end of…

The Friday File: 48% of TikTok influencers earn under $15,000/year. 9% earn between $15,000/year and $25,000/year, 7% earn between $25,000/year and $35,000/year, and 5% earn $35,000/year to $50,000/year. 11%, the biggest category, earn $50,000/year to $75,000/year, and 5% earn between…

Looking at 24Q4 GDP growth, estimates are literally all over the place. At the top end, the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model is at a robust 3.1%, while the NY Fed’s Nowcast model is at a solid 1.9%. However, the St.…

I want to wish everyone a great, risk-adjusted 2025. May it be a year of low unemployment, high wage gains, world peace, deep sleep, unbridled joy, deep love, robust health, falling inflation, a steepening yield curve, and a soft landing.…

Yesterday, President Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the US, died. He was 100, making him the longest-lived president in US history. He was born in Plains, GA, at a hospital where his mother was a nurse, making him the…

The Friday File: The top Christmas song based on all-time Spotify royalties is Mariah Carey’s ‘All I Want for Christmas is You,’ with 2.01 billion streams resulting in $8.04 million in royalties. ‘Last Christmas’ by Wham, follows with 1.69 billion…