The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

The Friday File: The odds of correctly picking all 63 games in the men’s/women’s NCAA basketball tournament, assuming each team has 50% chance of winning each game, is 1 in 9,223,372,063,854,775,808, or 1 in 9.2 quintillion. There aren’t that many…

In 1991, US net imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products averaged six million bbl/day. In 2000, net imports were 10 million bbl/day, and they peaked in 2006 at 12.5 million bbl/day. Then everything reversed. In 2010, imports declined…

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but there were tariff-related adjustments. Forecasted 2025 GDP growth slid from 2.1% to 1.7%, and 2026 growth from 2% to 1.8%. Expected 2025 core inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%, but…

The latest homebuilder sentiment index was super-soft. The overall index slumped to 39 (50 is neutral) same as, ugh, 2/07, and two of the three subcomponents worsened, current sales to 43, prospective buyer traffic to 24, and sales expectations over…

Mid-March figures from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment were dismal. Overall consumer sentiment sank 11%, and after big declines in January and February, is at its lowest level since 2022. Except for 2022 and Covid, it’s at…

The Friday File: Soon the NCAA wrestling championship tournament will occur. The men’s program with the most team championships is Oklahoma State with 34, Iowa follows with 24, including nine straight from 1978-1986, then Penn State with 12, including 11…

The trade deficit (the current account) plus net capital inflows (the capital account) must equal zero. A slow-growing nation like Japan runs a trade surplus of $200 billion/year, but it invests $200 billion/year abroad. Conversely, the fast-growing US runs a…

February CPI inflation was a light 0.2% M-o-M and 2.8% Y-o-Y, core was also 0.2% M-o-M but 3.1% Y-o-Y. All readings were better than last month. Fuel price declines helped, as did slowing rents. And Powell’s “super-core” index, which is…

If de-risking from China matters, then Mexico is a strategic, low-wage alternative, and thus imposing tariffs on Mexico makes no sense. Relatedly, why impose tariffs on industries in which we don’t compete, such as potash, or low margin car parts?…

February net job growth was a decent 151,000, January was revised down by 18,000 to 125,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% despite the labor force participation rate sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%. Mild continued weakening is visible. Critically,…