Econ70

Estimate are that $15.9 billion, a new nominal record, will be spent this election cycle. This total includes congressional races, outside money from super-PACs, and money spent by the two presidential campaigns. In real terms, the $15 billion spent during…

The 2024 economics Nobel prize was awarded to Daron Acemoglu/Simon Johnson of MIT and James Robinson of the University of Chicago. They won it for a seminal 2001 paper, showing how economic growth is profoundly dependent on political institutions. They…

The Friday File: The costliest place to watch a hockey game is Toronto, where they haven’t won a Cup since 1967. There it costs a family of four, for tickets, drinks, hot dogs, parking, etc., a staggering US$704, followed by…

US family inflation-adjusted wealth rose from $52 trillion in 1989 to $199 trillion in 2022. In 2022, the top 10% of families held 60% of wealth, up from 56% in 1989 and driven entirely by the top 1% whose holdings…

From 1933-2022, the average annual S&P 500 return with a Republican president and split Congress is 13.7%, while it’s 13.6% with a Democratic president and a divided Congress. The average return slips to 13%/year with a Democratic White House and…

Through the first 11 months of FY24, federal spending rose $392 billion or 7%, while revenues increased by a healthy but smaller 5.5%. Debt service rose by $227 billion and Social Security/Medicare increased by $174 billion. Other categories that bumped…

Wow! 254,000 net new September jobs, upward revisions of 72,000 to July and August, a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%, no decline in the labor force participation rate, a rise in wages, and much more, a…

The Friday File: A recent survey assessing environmental factors known to affect hair including wind speed, humidity, UV index, and water hardness has found Miami is hair hell with a score of 81.23. Tampa followed, then came San Antonio, Dallas,…

Far from being a leading or coincident economic indicator, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. Here’s why. In a downturn, firms first stop posting jobs and then stop hiring. If things worsen, employers will reduce headcount through attrition…

The longshoremen strike from Maine through Texas shouldn’t be underestimated. As a supply-side shock, this will raise prices, but the Fed will ignore this as rate hikes won’t influence either side in this negotiation. Estimates put the economic cost of…