Archive for March 2025

Mid-March figures from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment were dismal. Overall consumer sentiment sank 11%, and after big declines in January and February, is at its lowest level since 2022. Except for 2022 and Covid, it’s at its worst level since 1980. Pessimism was broad-based and seen across all groups by age,…

The Friday File: Soon the NCAA wrestling championship tournament will occur. The men’s program with the most team championships is Oklahoma State with 34, Iowa follows with 24, including nine straight from 1978-1986, then Penn State with 12, including 11 of the last 13. Relatedly, there have been six four-time NCAA individual male champions in…

The trade deficit (the current account) plus net capital inflows (the capital account) must equal zero. A slow-growing nation like Japan runs a trade surplus of $200 billion/year, but it invests $200 billion/year abroad. Conversely, the fast-growing US runs a net trade deficit of $1 trillion/year but receives net foreign capital inflows of $1 trillion/year.…

February CPI inflation was a light 0.2% M-o-M and 2.8% Y-o-Y, core was also 0.2% M-o-M but 3.1% Y-o-Y. All readings were better than last month. Fuel price declines helped, as did slowing rents. And Powell’s “super-core” index, which is core minus rents, was a benign 0.2%. Importantly, this decline in inflation is probably a…

If de-risking from China matters, then Mexico is a strategic, low-wage alternative, and thus imposing tariffs on Mexico makes no sense. Relatedly, why impose tariffs on industries in which we don’t compete, such as potash, or low margin car parts? All tariffs do in these cases is raise costs. Lastly, I suspect that because supply…

February net job growth was a decent 151,000, January was revised down by 18,000 to 125,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% despite the labor force participation rate sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%. Mild continued weakening is visible. Critically, this report is based on employment the week of 2-12-25, before any meaningful tariff discussions…

The Friday File: Of the nation’s 50 busiest airports, the one with the costliest average ticket in 24Q3 is Reagan Washington National at $473, followed by Orange County John Wayne at $428, then San Francisco at $425. The cheapest is Fort Lauderdale at $252, then San Juan at $266, and Orlando at $270. Prices depend…

Twenty percent of US oil consumption is reliant on Canadian imports, because despite the fracking revolution, pipeline capacity constraints mean the Midwest/Northeast depend heavily on Canadian crude and natural gas. Furthermore, Gulf Coast/Midwest refineries are designed only to process heavy Canadian grade oil. Oh, almost 100% of canola, 85% of potash, 46% of nickel, and…

As part of reconciliation, Republicans must find $880 billion in Medicaid savings through 2035. Talk about tough. Currently Medicaid covers 72 million people. Fraud is estimated to be maximally $31 billion/year. Work requirements might save $100 billion over a decade. Reducing the 9:1 match ratio would save $561 billion through 2035, but states would have…

On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proposed separating government spending, 23.3% of GDP including Social Security, Medicare, defense, and more from GDP reports. This proposition is best avoided. Once data quality is compromised, faith in other data will be impugned, investors who finance our debt will withdraw, raising interest rates, and policy makers will be…