Archive for July 2024

The state average mortgage interest rate varies from 3.8% in Colorado and Utah to 4.5% in Mississippi and West Virginia. Eight states are at 4.3% including FL, NY, and TX. General average rates rise as you move east. The variation exists due to credit scores, when mortgages were issued, and how difficult is for a…

Traditionally, house prices have declined when months-of-inventory exceeds six months. However, in 2022 we saw prices fall for seven months despite months-of-inventory in the 3s! That was probably a knee-jerk reaction to rapidly rising rates and memories of 2008/09. Months-of-supply is now 3.7 months, up from 2.6 in spring 2023. I suspect national prices start…

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, declined 0.1% in June, the first M-o-M decline since 5/20 as inflation pressures continue receding. Y-o-Y inflation was 3.0%, the lowest reading since 6/23. Core inflation, a better measure, rose a scant 0.1% M-o-M, the mildest rise since 1/21, and 3.3% Y-o-Y, the lowest reading in three years. Critically,…

The Friday File: In 2008, data centers around the world collectively used almost 50 terawatts (TWh) of power. By 2012 usage had roughly doubled to almost 100 TWh, and by 2017 had doubled again to 200 TWh. At present, usage is 350 TWh, and were data centers to be a country they would be the…

On 7/6/24, 3.013 million people passed through US airport security checkpoints. This was the first time the total surpassed 3 million, is up 14% from the same day Y-o-Y, and breaks the previous record of 2.99 million set on 6/23/24. Pre-Covid, the total was 2.5 million. Through 7/6/24, 460.7 million persons have been screened, up…

The U.S. trade deficit steadily improved from a monthly high of $102 billion in 3/22 to $60 billion in 8/23, and the improvement unsurprisingly boosted GDP growth. Since then, however, it has worsened in eight of the last nine months and now stands at -$75 billion. The worsening trade deficit reduced 24Q1 GDP by 0.65…

Through the end of 24H1, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare their performance to the unmanaged S&P 500 index bested it. Believe it or not, that dismal average is down from 19.2% in 23H1 and 19.8% in CY2023. Making this worse, this narrow market led by Nvidia and a…

Employers created a respectable 206,000 net June jobs, but April and May totals were reduced by a hefty 110,000 and the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.1%, its highest level since 11/21. While a July rate cut is unrealistic, the disturbing rise in the unemployment rate since the 4/23 low of 3.4%, along with…

The Friday File: The most visited country in 2023 was France with 100 million visitors. In second was Spain with visitors totaling 85 million. The third most popular nation is the U.S. with 67 million tourists. Next is Italy with 57 million sightseers, and rounding out the top is Turkiye (Turkey) with 55 million holidaymakers.…

Today, 87% of the population will be celebrating our independence from Great Britain, the same as last year, and down slightly from the record 90% in 2013. Planned spending is expected to be $90.42/person, down slightly from last year’s record spending of $93.34/person. That said, total holiday spending will still total $9.4 billion, which would…