Archive for January 2024

In 10/22, 63% of economists thought there would be a recession within 12 months. In 1/23, the percentage fell to 61%, where it remained in 4/23. In 7/23, it fell to 54%, and in 10/23 it declined to 48%, sub-50%! It’s now 39%. While that’s good news, contain your enthusiasm. In 12/07, a month before…

The winners of the 2024 federal elections will face consequential decisions regarding whether to extend Trump’s tax cuts that expire after 2025. Republicans wish to extend them, costing Treasury $4 trillion over a decade. Democrats propose extending the cuts to households making under $400,000/year while raising corporate taxes from 21% to 28% and the top…

For office workers, 5.6% of full-time and hybrid workers received a promotion in 2023, compared to 3.9% for fully remote employees, with no difference in promotion rates between hybrid and full-time. Relatedly, female software engineers at Fortune 500 firms who worked in the same building as their teammates received 40% more feedback on their code…

The Friday File: In 2019, The NFL generated revenues of $15.3 billion, Major Leage Baseball $10.7 billion, the NBA $8.8 billion, and the English Premier (Soccer) League $6.6 billion. These are the world’s four largest revenue generating professional leagues. However, U.S. college sports, synonymous with the NCAA, generated $18.9 billion in 2019. Congrats Michigan on…

Pre-Covid, shrink (a fancy word for retail store theft) was about $50 billion/year and 1.4% of retail sales. In 2021, shrink rose to $94 billion but declined to 1.4% of retail sales with less in-person shopping. Since then, it’s steadily risen. In 2022, it was $112 billion and 1.6% of sales, and in 2023 shrink…

For the year ending 11/23, construction spending totaled $2.05 trillion, 7.3% of GDP, and is up 11.3% Y-o-Y. Total private construction was $1.59 trillion, up 10% largely due to private manufacturing which totaled $209 billion, up from $131 billion Y-o-Y, a rise of a staggering 59%. Private residential construction totaled $897 billion, up 3.7% Y-o-Y…

Repeated Revisions Through November, 10 of 11 monthly employment reports have been revised down. In CY2008, a recession year, 11 were downwardly revised. Conversely in CY2021, a boom year, 11 were revised up. Two things are occurring. A strengthening economy makes upward revisions more likely, for a weakening economy, it’s the reverse. Moreover, data quality…

With December job creation at a solid 216,000, unemployment unchanged at a low 3.7%, the labor force participation rate sinking to 62.5% from 62.8%, December wage growth up a disappointingly strong 0.44% and Y-o-Y growth too strong at 4.1%, this Fed will remain reluctant to cut rates before May or more likely June. Only recession…

The Friday File: Previously it was believed that having more money made you happier, up to about $75,000/year. Recent research has overturned that thinking. Research now shows that if you are an unhappy person, happiness increases with income till about $100,000/year, not surprising given inflation. For those who are generally happy, happiness rises linearly with…

During November, 20 states experienced coincident economic growth with most of the remainder contracting, a few were flat. Since 1979, every time fewer than 23 states were expanding there’s been a recession. Worse, the number of growing states has been deteriorating for six straight months. The closest calls, in 1992 twenty-five states were expanding and…