Archive for May 2020

The unemployment rate for those with less than a HS diploma is now a staggering 21.2%, up from just 5.2% at the end of 2019. For those with a HS diploma, the respective numbers are 17.2%, up from 3.7% in 12/19. For those with some college the numbers are 15% and 2.7%. For employees with…

US higher education will soon suffer a raft of smaller college closures. This is due to endowments and endowment income being down, sports revenue being nonexistent, and refunds being up due to Covid-19 campus closures. Add in tax revenue declines, forcing university tuition up, thus making college more unaffordable, and fall ‘20 classes likely to…

In 20Q1, US GDP fell 4.8% on an annualized basis; 1.2% on a quarterly basis. In 20Q2, I expect US GDP to fall by 30% annualized, or 7.5% on a quarterly basis. Combined, the GDP decline in 20H1 totals 8.7%. With some luck, strong GDP growth returns in 20Q3! By comparison, GDP declined 4% during…

The 20.5 million job losses in April wiped out a decade of job gains and are ten times the previous record monthly job loss of 2 million set in 11/45. The only silver lining, 18 million of those losing their jobs self-classified as “temporarily laid off.” These jobs can come back relatively fast if things…

The Friday File: While sales of paper products and comfort foods spiked in March and early April, they’re returning to normal. Not so for alcohol! For the five weeks ending 4/18, retail sales are up an average of 24%, with spirits up the most at 33% (with ready-to-drink cocktails, tequila, and gin up the most).…

In 2019, for the first time since 1952, US energy exports of 23.6 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), exceeded energy imports of 22.8 quads. In 2019, the US was a net importer of 9 quads of crude oil but a net exporter of all other energy types. Net energy imports peaked in 2005 at 30…

While residential remodeling, which is as big as new single-family construction, has generally grown by about 5% a year since the Great Recession of 2008/09, things are changing. The combination of job losses, fear of job losses, declining household income, limited house price appreciation, falling equity prices, social distancing and importantly, fewer existing home sales,…

In 2018, well before Covid-19 arrived, marriage rates fell to 6.5 marriages per 1,000 persons, their lowest level since record keeping began in 1867! Interestingly, this is happening despite Millennials entering their “Peak Marriage” period, yet rates are still falling. From 1900-1980, marriages rates have been about 10/thousand but have been steadily falling since. Covid-19…

With recent job losses totaling slightly over 30 million and with millions more to come, assuming no one leaves the labor force, the unemployment rate will peak at 24% in 20Q2. Assuming 10 million persons quit the labor force, unemployment will peak at 18%. If net employment growth averages 800,000 jobs/month, four times the norm,…

Correct Calls The Friday File: Sports leagues are considering playing games in empty stadiums to fulfill obligations to networks that air games. Based on experience with soccer games held in empty European stadiums, referee calls will be less biased, thus eliminating the biggest source of home-court advantage. To wit, in the premier German soccer league,…