Archive for July 2019

Border apprehensions steadily rose from essentially nothing in 1960 to slightly over 1.5 million/year from 1996 through 2000. Apprehensions then steadily declined to a low of about 400,000/year in 2010 through 2018. However, in 2019, border apprehensions are way up and are on a pace to exceed one million. Moreover, in the past those apprehended…

OPEC and Russia recently extended a production cap until 3/20. However, OPEC’s share of global production is 39.2%, down from 42.2%, while US share is 14.5%, up from 10.9%. To date, most of the decline has resulted from sharp involuntary production declines in Venezuela and Iran. If demand doesn’t soon rise, OPEC and Russia will…

Chinese imports sagged a stunning 7.3% in June, suggesting weak demand. Moreover, auto sales fell for a 12th straight month in June and YTD are at their weakest since 2015. Also, June producer prices were flat, the weakest showing since 2016, profit margins are declining, manufacturing employment fell at the fastest pace in a decade,…

The Friday File: Based on data through 2018, India, in 2014, had the largest number of registered voters for a national democratic election with 834,101,479. The US is a distant second with 214,109,367 registered voters in 2016. Indonesia is not far behind with 193,944,150, then comes Brazil with 147,306,275. Russia (which votes despite barely being…

Historically, new housing led to more local shopping, and thus higher local sales tax revenues. But due to online shopping, that relationship has been attenuated. Moreover, there is now heightened demand for downtown office space rather than suburban office parks. Thus, new homes don’t generate as much new commercial property tax revenue as in the…

Despite department and clothing stores losing jobs (81,400 over the past year, down to 2.44 million), mall vacancy rates have steadied at 9.3% after rising for two straight years. And, the vacancy rate at strip malls fell to 10.1% in 19Q2 from 10.2% in 19Q1, the first quarterly decline since 16Q1. The combination of retail…

Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has proposed a wealth tax of 2% on those with wealth exceeding $50 million and a 1% billionaire surcharge. This tax will affect 75,000 households. Assuming no behavioral changes and no tax avoidance/evasion strategies, the tax will raise $220 billion/annum. But, based on CBO estimates of similar tax proposals,…

June’s strong 224,000 net new jobs were a huge relief after May’s weak showing and tariff traumas. That said, YTD job growth is 171,000/month, over the last 12 months it’s 192,000/month, in CY2018 it was 223,000/month; we’re slowing. Wage growth is steady at 3.1% Y-o-Y; no inflationary concerns! A half-point cut by the Fed later…

The Friday File: The busiest bridge on Earth, the George Washington, with over 100 million car crossings/year. The highest is the Chinese Beipanjiang Bridge with 1,854 feet between the bridge’s span and the ground. The tallest, the French Millau Viaduct, which is 1,125 feet tall from top to bottom. Lastly, the Howrah in Kolkota accommodates…

Tomorrow, based on the date of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the US celebrates its 243rd birthday. However, the United States officially became a sovereign nation by the Treaty of Paris, which was signed in 1783, making the US 236 years young! And, if we count from the ratification of the Constitution in…