Archive for May 2019

The yield curve inverts if the short end rises above the long end, or if the long end declines below the short end. In the former, the Fed is raising rates to reduce inflation and accidentally drives us into recession. The latter, which we are increasingly experiencing, occurs when growth and inflation expectations tank, and…

The share of Americans aged 25-54 in the labor force hit 82.6% in 1/19, the best level since 8/09. The main reason is rising labor force participation of young women. Since the end of the recession on 6/30/09, the only demographic group with a higher rate now than then is women aged 25-34. Men 25-34,…

Existing tariffs on Chinese imports and Chinese retaliatory tariffs reduce US GDP by 0.15 of a point. Last week’s tariff increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods will decrease GDP by another 0.15. A further 25% tariff on another $325 billion of Chinese imports would lower GDP by half a point.…

There are 62 weeks to go until the Democratic convention in Milwaukee. Based on public polling dating back to 1980, polls taken this early have the eventual nominee in first place just 35% of the time. However, these early polls do have the eventual winner ranked in the top three 85% of the time. A…

The Friday File: The top single of 1979, forty years ago, was My Sharona by the Knack; written by band lead Doug Fieger. The single sold 500,000 copies and went gold within weeks of its 6/79 release. It reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by August and stayed there for six weeks. Get The…

From 2009 through mid-2012, weekly earnings for those with less than a high school diploma declined. From then through late-2017, their wages improved and grew at the same rate as the wages of all others. Since late-2017, their wages have been growing faster than all others. Maybe it’s because since 2009 the labor force has…

In 5/18, lumber futures hit $640/1,000 board feet. By 10/18, they were half and have largely remained there; mills are closing. New home construction has reduced GDP for five straight quarters and is 3.76% of GDP. At the peak of the boom, it was 6.67%. Moreover, YTD starts are down 9.7%, permits are down 5.4%,…

The number of spam and spoof calls received by Americans has risen from 3.7% of all calls in 2017, or 100 calls/person, to 29.2% in 2018, and is expected to reach half of all calls by year end 2019. At a penny a call, the inconvenience cost Americans $3 billion in CY2018, and will cost…

There were 263,000 new jobs created in April, with all sectors but retail gaining. This strong growth is more proof of a solid economic rebound after a tough start to 2019. While pay rose 3.2% Y-o-Y, wage increases have been steady at 3.2% since 8/18, dampening inflation fears despite unemployment falling to 3.6%, the lowest…

The Friday File: The superhero movie Avengers: Endgame grossed an amazing $1.2 billion in its first five days of release; $350 million came from the US and Canada. Avengers is already the 18th highest global grossing movie and could become the top grossing movie ever, beating Avatar’s $2.79 billion, set in 2009. The top grossing…