Archive for April 2019

Based on 4/19 IMF data and growth projections, US GDP will end 2019 at $21.3 trillion, China will follow with GDP of $14.2 trillion, then Japan at $5.2 trillion and Germany at $4.0 trillion. The big news; India will leapfrog both the UK and France to become #5 at $3.0 trillion. The UK will follow…

Based on an IRS study from 2016 which looked at tax years 2008-2010, the size of the tax gap, the amount of money owed the IRS but not paid, averaged $406 billion/year. That means 16% of taxes went unpaid; about 2.8% of GDP. If the gap today is the same proportional size as it was…

The Friday File: This past Monday, Baltimore Oriole’s First baseman Chris Davis went 0-for-5, and in the process set a major league record of 49 straight at-bats without a hit. Wednesday night he made it 57 straight plate appearances without a hit, tying a major league (futility) record. However, don’t feel too bad for Mr.…

Going back to President Truman in the 1940s, President Trump’s approval rating has shifted less than any other sitting president. At its peak, Trump’s approval rating is 47%, at its trough it’s 38%. Obama’s approval rating was the next most stable, swinging just 16 points, and Clinton’s followed, swinging 19 points. This suggest we increasingly…

For the first time ever, the profitability of the Saudi Aramco Oil Company was recently disclosed. In 2018, Aramco’s profit was a stunning $111 billion, easily dwarfing the world’s second most profitable firm Apple, which earned $59.4 billion. Apple is worth almost a trillion. Aramco is worth no more than $1.5 trillion as profitability is…

Nasty Nominations The nominations of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed are a direct attack on its independence. Both called for higher rates when a Democrat occupied the White House and have conveniently reversed now that a Republican is there. While two votes won’t alter outcomes now, who says the next president won’t…

March’s job report was virtually perfect. 196,000 new jobs, upward revisions of 14,000 for January and February, wage growth that is steady at 3.2% Y-o-Y, the broadest measure of unemployment at 7.3%, its best showing since 3/01, and hours worked up from 34.4/week to 34.5/week. This report suggests the economy is not slipping into recession…

The Friday File: US music revenue peaked in 1999 at $21.5 billion (inflation adjusted). At that time, CD sales comprised 90% of revenues. Revenues bottomed in 2015 at about $7 billion (inflation adjusted), with sales evenly divided between CDs, MP3 downloads, and streaming. By 2017, sales had risen to almost $9 billion (inflation adjusted) with…

While Millennials ride public transportation and use ride-hailing services, looks can be deceiving. After controlling for the impact of the Great Recession and other forces beyond their control, there is little difference in preferences for vehicle ownership between Millennials and prior generations. While Millennials are more likely to live in urban settings and marry later,…

Inflationary pressures are very weak. Y-o-Y February CPI is 1.5%, with core CPI at 2.1%, both down from January. February producer price inflation was 1.9%, also down from January. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure was 1.4% in January, the lowest rate since 9/16, while core was just 1.8%, an 11-month low. Add slowing growth…