Archive for March 2019

Elliot spoke to the Fredericksburg (Virginia) Area Association of Realtors and the Fredericksburg Area Builders Association on March 6, 2019. See the write-up in the Free Lance-Star:

The Friday File: While the cost of a plain 16oz cup of coffee at Dunkin’ Donuts, McDonald’s, Starbucks and 7-Eleven ranges from roughly $1.20 to $2.65, caffeine content/cup also varies, specifically, from a low of almost 150mg/cup to almost 350mg/cup. Now, comparing milligrams of coffee per dollar, the best value is 7-Eleven at 129mg/$1, followed…

While China’s exports fell a whopping 21% in 2/19, averaging out January and February the decline is just 4.6%; nearly identical to the decline of 4.4% in 12/17. Averaging is important because much of the February decline was due to China’s weeklong Lunar New Year holidays. That said, exports to the US fell 9.9% Y-o-Y…

December retail sales were dismal, declining 1.2% M-o-M, their worst performance in years. They have since rebounded and January sales were up 0.2%. While there are many possible explanations, including the government shutdown, the near 20% decline in the stock market is at least partly to blame. In the past the stock market generally reflected…

During the 20th century, the US consumed 4.4 gigatons of cement. By contrast, during 2011-2013 China used 6.4 gigatons of cement; 45% more than the US used in 100 years; amazing! Why? China has 221 cities with over a million persons; the US just 35, China’s population is vastly larger than the US population, Chinese…

With just 20,000 new jobs, the February job report headline was disappointing. But, aftermath from the government shutdown continued to impact the data, as did severe weather during the survey week. Separately, since the current expansion began, each time there has been a lousy month, it’s been followed by a good one. So, don’t focus…

The Friday File: Today is International Women’s Day, which was first held in the US on 2/28/1909 in honor of the 15,000 female garment workers who marched for better working conditions in NYC in 1908. The first International Women’s Day was celebrated in 1911 in four European nations after the Socialist International established it in…

In 2016, the latest year for which data are available, there were 140.9 million taxpayers. The top 1%, (AGI > $480,804), earned 19.7% of all income, paid 37.3% of all income taxes, and had an average tax rate of 26.9%. By contrast, the bottom 50% of taxpayers, (AGI < $40,078), earned 11.6% of all income,…

Last week, a key manufacturing sentiment index fell to its lowest level in over two years but remains solidly in expansion territory. Yesterday, an equally important services sentiment index rose to one of its highest levels of this almost 10-year economic recovery. And today, we learned the trade deficit worsened due to higher imports and…

A record 7 million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their car loans. While more than 5.8 million were delinquent during the Great Recession, as a percentage of auto loans outstanding, today’s rate is 4.5% vs 5.3% at the 2010 peak. While this is a growing problem, auto loans total $1 trillion, much…