Archive for February 2019

Valentine’s Day spending is expected to reach $20.6 billion, up from $19.6 billion last year and exceeding the prior record high of $19.7 in 2016. This year, 51% of Americans plan to celebrate, down from 55% last year and well down from the peak of 63% in 2007. Average per capita spending among celebrants is…

Economic growth in the European Union has consistently exceeded growth in the eurozone since the euro debuted on 1/1/99. The two most important reasons are a total loss of control over monetary policy and, maybe worse, since 2012 eurozone governments have been forbidden to run deficits greater than 3% of GDP, neutering fiscal policy. The…

On 12/31/18 there were a record 7.335 million job openings, and 6.294 million unemployed persons, or 1.17 jobs/unemployed person, the ninth consecutive month openings have exceeded the unemployed. Relatedly, the number of job openings has exceeded the number hired since 1/15. The number of openings is up 29% Y-o-Y while hires are up just 7%.…

In an amazing turn of events, the US petroleum trade deficit in 11/18, the latest month for which we have data, was just $625 million. As recently as mid-2008 it was a record-high $40 billion/month. What happened? Lower oil prices, down from almost $150/bbl to just $53/bbl, and the fracking revolution. During this same period…

The Friday File: Until recently, licking was the only way to affix a stamp to an envelope. The caloric content in the adhesive on US stamps is/was 1/10 of a calorie, for UK stamps; on average 5.9 calories (different adhesives). In 1995, Dean Gould of the UK licked a record 450 stamps in four minutes…

The labor market is so strong the number of persons who left Social Security disability (which pays the same as working full-time at minimum wage) because they found gainful employment hit 51,302, the most since record keeping began in 2002, and well above the 37,000/year back in boom years 2005/2006. The number of Americans receiving…

Amazon currently accounts for 49.1% of all US retail e-commerce. In distant second is eBay at 6.6%, then Apple at 3.9% and Walmart at 3.7%. No other firm exceeds 2%. Moreover, Amazon now delivers 26% of its online orders using its own shipping service. In 2013, no Amazon deliveries were made that way. The USPS…

A key reason 10-year Treasury bond yields have fallen from about 3.1% in Mid-November to just 2.75% today, despite a strong domestic economy, is weakness in Europe. Yields on 10-year German bonds have fallen from 0.55% in October to just 0.15%. Why? Italy is in recession, Brexit hangs over the continent and European GDP growth…

Despite a partial government shutdown and volatile markets, 304,000 net new jobs were created in January, the second-best increase since 7/16, and the 100th straight month of employment gains, more than double the next best stretch. Y-o-Y wage growth remains a strong 3.2% and the labor force participation rate hit 63.2%; tops since 9/13. With…

The Friday File: With a prediction rate of 77%, or 40 for 52, a level any economist would be proud of, the Super Bowl Predictor is not to be ignored, despite having no intellectual validity and having been wrong three years running. The SBP states that if an original NFL team or an NFC team…