Archive for January 2019

The US government directly employs 2 million civilians. Active-duty military number 1.3 million, and the USPS employs 500,000. There are also 1.3 million grant employees, persons paid through a federal grant and roughly 4 million contract employees. The total, 9.1 million persons. My ballpark guess is 40% of contractors and grant workers, or 2.1 million…

By announcing he won’t schedule debate on any bills to reopen the government Trump won’t sign, McConnell has empowered the President and reduced pressure on his caucus that would inevitably come from voting on such bills. To wit, the latest polls show just 5% of Americans blaming Congressional Republicans. Moreover, McConnell is attempting to frame…

While unionization has always been low in the US compared to other advanced democracies, trends are similar. Back in 1980, the unionization rate in OECD nations was about 50%; it’s now 18%. In the US, the rate has fallen from over 30% in 1960 to 10% today. Why, better pay and working conditions, and a…

While wages of men and women with at least a HS diploma are similar early in life, they diverge dramatically with age. The gap peaks at about age 50 with men earning about $76,000/year and women earning about $49,000/year. However, at all ages there is no gap between single women, single men and married women.…

The Friday File: After a glorious run of several years as the world’s most valuable company at over $1 trillion, Apple has stumbled and lost a staggering $350 billion in value over the past few months on lousy iPhone sales. As a result, Microsoft was tops for the past month but was just overtaken by…

Pending home sales have declined Y-o-Y for 11 straight months, existing sales peaked in 11/17, existing inventory has been rising Y-o-Y for four straight months, and appreciation has been slowing for six straight months. Starts have been flat since 11/16, new sales have been falling since 11/17, and new inventory has risen from 4.9 months…

As recently as 2010, cheap oil was great for the US as oil production was low. However, due to fracking, US production has doubled since 2010 to 11.6 million bbl/day. Lower prices reduce corporate investment which leads to reduced employment. But due to productivity gains, oil field expenditures have declined along with employment; from 200,000…

In China, the key private sector index that looks at manufacturing showed activity shrinking in November, the first time since 5/17, and the official government index showed the same, the first time since 2/16. Here in the US, all five Federal Reserve manufacturing indices (Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia and Richmond) weakened in November;…

312,000 net new jobs in November, the biggest increase since 2/18, upward revisions totaling 58,000 for September and October, and Y-o-Y wage growth of 3.2%, the best in over a decade, make the November employment report outstanding. Moreover, the unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.7% because of more folks working and looking for work! With…

The Friday File: The leader of a cycling peloton experiences 88% of the wind resistance compared to riding alone. The two cyclists behind the leader face about 63% of the wind resistance, while the middle cyclist in the next row of three faces just 38% of the wind resistance. In the middle of the pack,…