Archive for December 2018

The Friday File: The percentage of voters whose surname starts with S is almost 10%, followed by M with 9.25%, B at 8.5%, C with 7.25%, and H at 6.75%. W and R follow with about 5.5% each. These seven letters have over half of all voter names. The first half of the alphabet, letters…

The recently concluded G20 meetings include, by GDP ranking; the USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK, India, France, Brazil, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Russia, Australia, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, South Africa, and oddly the EU, which isn’t a nation. Spain, ranked 13th, Netherlands 18th, and Switzerland 20th, were excluded, while Argentina 21st and South…

During CY2017, France had the highest tax revenue as a percent of GDP among the 36 OECD (wealthy western democratic) nations at 46.2%. Denmark was just behind at just 46%, and in third was Sweden at 44%. The US was 31st at 27.1%. Ireland has the lowest tax share in Europe at 22.8%, Chile was…

For the week ending 11/30/18, the US exported 3.2 million barrels/day of crude oil and 5.8 million barrels/day of gasoline, refined products. Those 9 million barrels/day of exports exceeded the 8.8 million barrels/day of imports, making the US a net oil exporter for the first time in decades! US oil imports peaked in 2005 at…

With 155,000 net new November jobs, the labor market continues to perform well, but may be cooling. The unemployment rate held at 3.7% as folks continued joining the labor force, which is great, and wage growth was unchanged from October’s solid 3.1%, suggesting wage inflation is in check. But, employment growth over the last three…

The Friday File: In 2018, US per capita egg consumption is expected to be 279. While some wind up in cakes, souffles and sauces, many are eaten by themselves. The preferred way: it’s a tie between scrambled and fried, both chosen by 23% of egg eaters. Next comes poached at 22%, soft boiled is fourth…

Oil prices aren’t spiking (which caused the 1973 and 1979 recessions), neither are interest rates (1981 and 1983 recessions). Better yet, banks aren’t failing, nor is consumer confidence tanking (collectively helping cause the 1990 recession), nor are equity prices and corporate investment collapsing (2000 recession), and there’s no mortgage-lending scandal (2008). But exports are weakening,…

Yesterday, rates on two-year and three-year Treasuries rose above the rate on the five-year Treasury, which probably lead to substantial algorithmic trading. While this isn’t a full-fledged yield curve inversion (YCI), which refers to the yield on the two-year Treasury exceeding the ten-year, this mini inversion isn’t to be ignored, as it has generally been…

That Xi and Trump have agreed to a framework to guide trade talks and delay more tariffs is good. But the fundamental trade problems remain. With politically savvy hardliner US Trade Representative Lighthizer heading the US negotiating team, the talks will be very contentious, and the US will push hard for fundamental overhauls of Chinese…

Superficially, Great Britain looks good despite Brexit. Unemployment is near a record low, wages are increasing at their fastest pace in a decade, and a huge budget deficit has shrunk. However, best estimates suggest UK GDP is 2% smaller than had voters chosen to Remain. Why? Labor force growth has shrunk from 1.2%/year to 0.4%/year,…