Archive for February 2018

The 54.7% of American romantics who plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day are expected to spend $19.6 billion this year, or $146/person, up from last year’s disappointing $18.2 billion, but below the all-time high of $19.7 in 2016. Total planned spending on jewelry is expected to reach $4.7 billion, followed by dinner out at $3.7, flowers…

In 2017, the economies of the 45 largest democracies with market economies grew in unison. That was the first time this has occurred since the years 2004-2007. Looking back in history to 1979 and including the periods already mentioned, synchronized global growth of this sort has happened in just seven years, or 18% of the…

Average hourly earnings of private non-farm employees rose 2.9% Y-o-Y in January. This roiled markets; it was the largest gain since 5/09. But, the gain was exclusive to supervisory workers whose Y-o-Y gain was 3.9%! This fluke outcome occurred because the bomb cyclone prevented low-paid hourly workers from working, reducing their hours worked and pushing…

The Friday File: With the 2018 Winter Olympics and its 102 events upon us, the question is “How will Team USA do?” While predictions are particularly hard when state-sponsored performance enhancing drug programs are involved, the USA should win 10 golds and at least 33 medals and wind up in the top three in golds…

The US budget deficit hit 9.8% of GDP in 2009. It then steadily declined to 2.4% in 2015, thanks to curbs on defense and discretionary spending worked out by Obama and Republicans, ultra-low interest rates, and rising tax revenues due to an improving economy. Last year, the deficit was 3.4% and this year it’s projected…

One key component of GDP is corporate investment in equipment and 2018 should be good. The combination of tax cuts, improved business confidence, strengthening global demand, high enough oil prices, a weaker US dollar, very low unemployment, and concomitantly rising worker wages, all point to strong growth. Corporate investment in plant should be close to…

After a decade of weak inflation, suddenly synchronized global growth, the fastest US wage increase since 6/09, and fiscal stimulus from the GOP tax cut have convinced investors it will become pervasive. This, they fear, will cause the Fed to raise rates more rapidly than expected and is what precipitated the steep decline in equities.…

Since 1/1/10, total employment growth has been 14% in the 53 metro areas with a population exceeding one million. In metro areas between 250,000 and one million, employment growth has been 9%, and in smaller metro areas, it’s been just 4.5%. Worse, in non-metro areas, employment growth has totaled 2%! The 53 largest metro areas…

The Friday File: The percentage of adults who consider themselves pro football fans is an astonishing 60%. College football and baseball are next at 45%. NBA basketball follows at 39%, then college basketball at 35%. Pro boxing is sixth at 28%, mixed martial arts are at 25%, pro soccer and pro auto racing are both…

In 2016, people living abroad sent $574 billion back home. These remittances are more than three times that of official development aid and are more stable. Nepal received $6.6 billion in remittances, 31.3% of its GDP. Kyrgyzstan follows with $2 billion, or 30.4% of GDP, and neighboring Tajikistan is next with $1.9 billion or 29.6%…