Archive for November 2017

Talk of the UK ending up with “no-deal” on trade from the EU is rising, but it’s rubbish! Absent a deal, the UK would instantly enter a recession, and by 2030 British GDP would be 10% or $8,300/person lower than with a deal. But, the hit to the EU would also be substantial; 2.25% or…

The Congressional budget resolution allowing for tax reform proposes increasing the debt over the next decade by $1.5 trillion on top of the already projected $10.1 trillion debt increase. The argument is that faster growth will pay for itself. I am skeptical. Tax cuts can pay for themselves if the reduction in rates is huge,…

While our economy is humming with 3.1% GDP growth in 17Q2 and 3% growth in 17Q3, these rates are unsustainable. That’s because these rates have required such large increases in employment that the unemployment rate declined from a low 4.5% at the end of March to a staggeringly low 4.2% by the end of September.…

The Friday File: 75% of Mississippians pray daily, tops in the US; just 31% of Vermonters do, the smallest percentage. As for believing in Hell, top spot at 77% is held by residents of Mississippi and Tennessee; just 36% of those in Massachusetts do, the lowest rate. As for Heaven, Mississippi is again first with…

While the final Republican tax plan is still a work in progress that may never become law, one thing’s very clear; its philosophy is to tax people, who are relatively immobile, and lower taxes on corporations, which can much more easily move their money. Yes, while workers will generally get short-term relief, two-thirds of the…

Last week the ECB decided to purchase €30 billion/month in bonds, down from the current €60 billion/month, through at least next September rather than a higher amount/month for a shorter period. While seemingly academic, here’s why. Markets must now consider the possibility of yet more QE when this latest dovish recalibration ends, injecting more uncertainty…

As Measured by the Conference Board, October consumer confidence came in at 125.9, the highest reading since 12/00. This elevated level is a result of rising equity and home prices and an unemployment rate of just 4.2%, its best level since 2/01. A similar measure put out by the University of Michigan is at its…

October’s 261,000 net new jobs was good, as were upward revisions to August and September totaling 90,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, its lowest level since 12/00, the broadest measure of unemployment fell to 7.9%, tops since 12/06, and job growth over the past three months has averaged a solid 162,000. But, wage growth was zero…

The Friday File: The smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup is Iceland, which, with a population of 335,000, will play in 2018. Prior to Iceland, the smallest nation to contend was Trinidad and Tobago, which competed in 2006 and has a population of 1.37 million. Before them, Northern Ireland held the record.…

For the first time since 1978, a first-term president hasn’t reappointed the incumbent Fed chair. Instead, President Trump will appoint existing Fed governor Powell. He will continue the process of gradual rate rises established by outgoing chair Yellen, but offer a lighter regulatory touch. As Yellen’s term as a Fed governor doesn’t end until 2024,…