Archive for September 2017

The Friday File: In addition to being the nation’s oldest first-term president, its wealthiest, and the first with no military or governmental experience, President Trump is the first President since Andrew Johnson (1865-1869), and only one of three without a pet. Theodore Roosevelt had 50 pets, followed by Coolidge with 29 (including a hippo), Washington…

The global oil market, based solely on the value of oil produced and thus excluding options, futures and the like, is $1.7 trillion/year, more than all other raw material markets combined. Gold is next at $170 billion/year, one-tenth the size of oil. Not too far behind is iron ore at $115 billion/year. Rounding out the…

The destruction of private wealth and public infrastructure caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is roughly $200 billion. The impact on GDP growth will critically depend on how fast refineries in Houston and tourism in Florida recover, along with how much insurance money and government disaster assistance arrives. 17Q3 GDP will be three-quarters of one…

Median household income rose 3.2% in 2016 to $59,039, finally surpassing the previous inflation-adjusted record of $58,665 set in 1999, yes 1999! In addition, the male-female wage gap narrowed from 79.6% in 2015, to 80.5%, and the poverty rate declined to 12.7%. In 2000, it was just 11.3%, close to the record 1972 low of…

While durable goods orders fell in 6.8% in July, ex-transportation orders (which exclude aircraft orders as they are profoundly mercurial), were up 0.5% M-o-M and 5.6% Y-o-Y. Better yet, Y-o-Y ex-transportation orders are growing at their best pace since 12Q1. Relatedly, core capital goods, which exclude defense and transportation, and are a good proxy for…

The Friday File: In 2016, the Tooth Fairy left an average of $4.66, up from $3.91 in 2015. In total, tooth fairies left $290.6 million! First teeth are especially valuable, bringing in an average of $5.72. The tooth fairy visits 85% of the nation’s households with children. Payouts are highest in the West at $5.96,…

Since 1977, there have been 11 federal government-wide shutdowns. Nine times those shutdowns have lasted three days or less, once, in 1995, it lasted six days. The shutdown in 2013 lasted the longest, 16 days, but most Defense Department workers returned to work after six days. There have also been seven partial or technical shutdowns.…

The US economy grew at a strong 3% during 17Q2, up from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. The improvement was the result of significantly stronger consumer spending, and this is very important, private investment! As the labor market tightens and wages rise, firms appear to be finally boosting capital expenditures significantly, which should raise labor…

Employers added just 156,000 jobs in August, and June and July were collectively downwardly revised 41,000. Yet job creation is averaging 185,000/month since June, and 176,000 YTD; excellent numbers this late in the cycle. More puzzling, wage growth has been 2.5% for three straight months, a level last consistently seen in 15Q4/16Q1! The unemployment rate…

The Friday File: From 1976 to 2000, Americans used about 20 days of vacation/year. Since then, the number has steadily declined, hitting a low of 16 in 2014. In 2015, it rose to 16.2 and last year: 16.8! 44% of women took all their vacation time, 48% of men did. The number of days that…