Archive for June 2017

Surprisingly, Y-o-Y housing starts fell 5.5% in May. YTD, single-family starts are up 7.4% but multi-family starts are down 2.8%. Continuing that theme, total starts are progressively weakening due to MF activity plunging from a +20% Y-o-Y increase in January to a -23% decline in May; single-family starts have been consistently 7% higher. This flat…

The Friday File: Father’s Day spending is expected to reach a record $15.5 billion this year, up from $14.3 billion in 2016. $3.3 billion will be spent on experiential activities, followed by $2.2 billion on gift cards and an equal amount on clothes. The most common gift; a greeting card. 54% of gifts will go…

In 1940, the percentage of one-person households in the USA was 7.7%, by 1960 it was 13.3%, and by 1980, 22.7%. In 2000, the rate was 25.8% and in 2016, 28.1%! DC has the highest percentage of one-person households at 42%, followed by RI at 31.8% and MT at 31.5%. Globally, Sweden, where one-person households…

While the Fed increased short-term rates by one-quarter-of-one percent, as expected, it’s their intention to raise rates again this year by the same amount that was mildly surprising. With inflation slowing across the globe and core CPI down steadily since January, the Fed needs faster wage inflation and the end of a series of one-off…

Household net worth climbed by $2.3 trillion in 17Q1 and it is now a record $94.8 trillion and a record 5 times GDP, well higher than during the housing or dotcom booms. Stock market wealth rose by $1.3 trillion and real estate by $500 billion. This wealth increase boosts consumer confidence, but household spending remains…

From 1914-2006 there were 19 interest rate rising cycles. We’re now in the 20th. In 16 of the 19, a recession followed, meaning 84% of the time a recession followed a sustained rise in short-term rates. However, since WWII there have been 14 rate rising cycles and a recession followed only 11 times. The Fed…

The Friday File: Through age 30, the percentage of Millennials that consume alcohol (80%), marijuana (20%) and cocaine (3%) is virtually identical as it was for Gen-Xers of the same age. For all three substances, it is Boomers that were the keenest consumers. Painkillers are different. Through age 30, the percentage of Millennials that consume…

Before the final vote is cast, the upcoming 6/20/17 special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District will be, by far, the most expensive US Representative race in history, with total spending as of 5/25/17 of $37 million. The previous high watermark of $29.5 million was set in 2012 in Florida’s 18th CD. In third place;…

Job openings hit an all-time high of 6 million in April, and the number of hires fell by 259,000 to 5 million. The gap between openings and hires of 1 million is also the highest on record and suggests that finding qualified workers is very tough. For purposes of comparison, there are 6.86 million persons…

After bottoming at a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 9 million cars and light trucks in 2/09, car sales increased almost nonstop through 10/15 when sales hit 18.1 million. Since then, only in 12/16 did sales exceed 18 million, last month they were 16.7 million. Moreover, employment has also peaked. After car and car-parts…