Archive for July 2016

The Friday File: The highest grossing musical tour in 2015 was Taylor Swift, with revenues of $250 million, followed by AC/DC at $180, One Direction at $159, U2 at $152 and Foo Fighters at $127. The highest grossing concert tour ever, the U2 360° Tour from 2009-2011 which, inflation adjusted, grossed $775 million, followed by…

While stock markets have largely recovered from the recent Brexit vote, trouble lurks as witnessed by the continued plumbing of new depths by interest rates. 10-year US Treasuries recently hit a historic low of 1.36%, equivalent duration German bonds yield -0.06%, and the entire stock of Swiss government bonds, including those with 50-year maturities, have…

The percentage of homes with a mortgage in foreclosure in 5/16 was 1%, compared to 1.3% in 5/15 and a peak of 4.5% in 2010. The current rate is the lowest since 10/07 but is still double the historic average. NJ had the highest foreclosure inventory at 3.6%, followed by NY at 3.2% and HI…

For the last 25 years, for statistical reasons not entirely understood but having to do with residual seasonality, Q1 GDP has usually been very weak. As a result, the other three quarters have been somewhat elevated with Q2 usually being the best quarter of the year. As a result, closely watch the upcoming first estimate…

While the 287,000 net new jobs created in June was spectacular, the 11,000 net new jobs created in May was dismal. And, both give a false reading of the labor market. YTD, job creation is averaging 171,500/month compared to 220,333/month through June 2015. Job growth is indeed slowing, but growing fast enough to keep reducing…

The Friday File: In 2014/15, the NBA’s salary cap was $63 million/team, in 2015/16 it was $70 million. This coming season it will hit an eye-watering $94 million, and the year after that, a stratospheric $107 million! This means starting the year after next, players will collectively earn $1.11 billion/year more than they do now.…

While Republicans could generally be counted on to (at least rhetorically) push to reduce debt, cut entitlements, lower taxes and boost trade, now, all bets are off. With Trump, the Republicans have a protectionist who wants to keep entitlements unchanged, reduce trade, increase spending on infrastructure and defense, and deport 11 million illegals. These plans…

While short-term rates are extremely low, the Fed Funds rate is at 0.375%; monetary policy isn’t all that expansionary! The real interest rate — the fed funds rate minus inflation -– is roughly -1.25%, yet the rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary is about 0%. That’s why the Fed isn’t in a huge rush…

While Brexit has created more than ample turmoil and confusion, it’s made the USA the undisputed largest economy in the world. According to the World Bank, prior to Brexit the EU had a collective GDP of $18.5 trillion, but post Brexit it falls to $15.5 trillion. By contrast, the World Bank estimates US GDP at…

The Friday File: 60 years ago, Eisenhower signed the US Interstate Highway System into law. Expected to take 12 years to complete, it officially took 35. Since 1956, the number of miles traveled/year has grown from 625 billion to 3 trillion. While the 47,662-mile IHS comprises 2.5% of mile lanes, it carries 25% of traffic.…