Archive for April 2016

The Friday File: Americans spend 7.6 billion hours and $140 billion complying with the 5 million words in the ever changing and expanding US tax code and accompanying regulations. In 2013, the latest year for which data is available, 138.3 million taxpayers reported $9.03 trillion in AGI and paid $1.23 trillion in income taxes. The…

While the US remains a global bright spot and the Fed aims to raise rates twice this year, the June meeting may not be when they raise rates. This is because the United Kingdom’s referendum on whether or not to leave the EU is set for eight days after the Fed meets. Unless the odds…

With the 10-year Treasury at 1.78% and 30-year mortgage rates reaching their 2016 low last week at 3.59%, and with the IMF again downgrading their estimate of global growth, there’s talk of 30-year mortgage rates possibly reaching the 3.35% low of 2012. Based on the relationship between the two rates, the 10-Treasury would have to…

While Bitcoin may or may not become mainstream, the blockchain technology that undergirds it, a “distributed ledger” which is a database maintained not by a single actor but by many participants simultaneously, slowly will. Financial trades could be settled instantly absent intermediaries (banks, brokers), reducing risk and cost. Another example, the maintaining of land ownership…

As Japan and Europe sink further into negative interest rate territory, the impacts here are undeniable. In an effort to earn positive returns, European and Japanese investors sell their currencies to purchase ours pushing up our dollar, hurting exports, weakening inflation and boosting imports. Then, with our currency in hand foreigners buy better yielding US…

The Friday File: Contrary to popular belief, the United Kingdom ranks just 4th in global per capita tea consumption at 3.7 lbs/person/year. Uzbekistan is 3rd at 4.6 lbs/person/year, Ireland is 2nd at 4.7 lbs/person/year while the Turks consume the most tea, a whopping 6.5 lbs/person/year! Russia comes in 5th at 3.1 lbs/person/year. Canada holds down…

Q3 consumer delinquencies rose from a record low of 1.36% in Q2 to 1.41%. These levels are substantially below the 15-year average of 2.25%, a level last seen roughly four years ago. Mobile home loans have the highest delinquency rate at 3.59%, followed by home equity lines of credit at 2.91%. At the other end,…

While the sagging stock market is the result of many factors, corporate profits haven’t helped. In Q4, depending on how measured, corporate profits declined between 3.6% and 15%, and in 2015 they ranged from up 3.3% to down 5.1%. Using the most common definition, corporate profits grew 0.1% in 2014 and 0.6% in 2013. These…

During Q1/16, the top performing asset was lean hogs, up a staggering 35.2%, followed by gold at 16.5%, utility stocks at 15.7%, and the Brazilian stock market, which rose 15.5%. The worst performer, rough rice, down 18.1%, followed by natural gas at -16.2%, the Italian stock market at -15.4%, and the Shanghai Composite at -15.1%.…

Friday’s jobs report showed a solid gain of 215,000 jobs. That said, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9% to 5% because the labor force grew by an even larger 396,000 persons! As a result, the labor force participation rate rose by another 0.1% to 63%, its best level since 3/14 and up from a…