Archive for April 2015

After a dismal February, housing bounced back slightly in March, but is still quite weak. While starts jumped a weather-related 115% in the Northeast and 31% in the in the Midwest, they inexplicably fell 4% in the South and 19% in the West, by far the two biggest regions. March starts are down 3% year-over-year…

While China has the largest trade surplus at $380 billion, Germany, with a trade surplus of $250 billion, may soon take that title. China’s surplus is about 2% of its GDP, but Germany’s is almost 7% and rising. It’s high primarily because Germany benefits from the weak euro and because its inexplicably contractionary fiscal policies…

In 2014, the bottom fifth of Americans (incomes up to $24,200/year) earned 4.5% of income and paid -2.2% of income taxes (because of credits like EITC). The next quintile earned 9.3% of income and paid -1% of income taxes. The middle quintile earned 14.8% and paid 5.9%, while the fourth quintile earned 20% and paid…

Doctor Drupe The Friday File: Contrary to popular wisdom and after controlling for socioeconomic status, persons that eat an apple a day are just as likely to see the doctor or have an overnight hospital stay as those that do not. Despite this heavy blow to the fruit-farmer-industrial complex, the research did show that daily…

While the Fed struggles as to the timing of its first rate rise since 2004, this puts it in rarified company. Last quarter, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the ECB, Hungary, Israel, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkey all lowered rates. Only the Czech Republic, England, Mexico and New…

The population of US counties that include large metropolitan cities grew just 0.7% between 7/13 and 7/14, down 0.9% Y-o-Y. Suburbs of the large metro areas grew by 1.2%, up from 1.1% Y-o-Y. The exurbs, (the suburbs of the suburbs) grew 0.87% last year, faster than big cities and up from 0.56% Y-o-Y. The recession’s…

Sales of vacation homes are skyrocketing. Last year a record 1.13 million vacation properties sold, an amazing 21% of all sales and up 57.4% from 2013! Part of this is due to Boomers buying second homes to eventually retire to, while part is being fed by strong gains in financial markets. Meanwhile, sales of investment…

The Fed wants to raise short-term rates, and the three most important labor market variables they’re looking at are payroll growth, the unemployment rate and the change in average hourly earnings. Last Friday’s employment report offered no good news. Payroll growth at 126,000 was half the level expected by economists, the unemployment rate remained unchanged,…

The Friday File: In the unlikely event of a zombie invasion, avoid northeastern Pennsylvania at all costs as it’s close to big cities where the outbreak is likely to start. Bakersfield is also bad, it’s close to LA, SF and SD. Austin is also risky being close to Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. The best…