Archive for November 2014

While US exports are weakening, don’t worry. Exports account for just 14% of US GDP, less than for any other developed nation. Exports account for 30% of Canadian GDP, 51% of German GDP, 15% of Japanese GDP, and 53% of South Korean GDP. Moreover, US exports to Europe are just 15% of all exports. A…

In a very close election, Brazilians recently re-elected Dilma Rouseff. The result: the Brazilian real fell 2% and is near a 10-year low, and the stock market fell almost 3%. Worse, Brazilian sovereign debt is close to being downgraded to non-investment grade, inflation is high and the economy is in recession. Regrettably, Aecio Neves didn’t…

There are currently 18 million male veterans, 15.6% of the male population, and 1.6 million female veterans. 7 million served in Vietnam, 5.2 million served in the Gulf War Era (8/90 through today), 1.3 million in WWII, 2.1 million in Korea, and 4.7 million in peacetime. The oldest living veteran is 108 and the last…

Because the US still imports 5 million barrels/day of oil, and consumers spend a substantial share of income on energy, cheaper oil boosts GDP. Every $10/bbl decline shaves 25 cents off the price/gallon of gas and reduces oil imports by $50 billion/year. That will boost GDP by almost half a percent. If oil falls below…

The Friday File: Monday marks the 25th anniversary of the fall of the “Anti-Fascist Protection Rampart” aka the Berlin Wall. The Wall was 96 miles long, and before the border was sealed on 8/13/1961, only after a Berlin railway bypass was built, approximately 3.5 million East Germans, 20% of the population, defected. 98 persons were…

With Republicans running Capitol Hill, there is renewed hope that bills dealing with corporate taxes, trade and maybe even immigration become law this session. There is also hope that some small parts of Dodd-Frank and the Affordable Care Act get watered down or changed. However, expect no legislative action on housing finance. It’s not a…

The 2014 mid-term elections were the costliest mid-terms ever with total spending hitting $3.67 billion or $44/voter! The most expensive race was the NC senate race at $113 million, followed by the CO senate race at $97 million, the IA senate at $85 million and the KY senate race at $78 million. Mitch McConnell (R-KY),…

GDP grew by a healthy 3.5% in Q3, but better yet the employment-cost index, a broad measure of wages and benefits, rose by 0.7% in Q2 and in Q3 its best performance since 2008. Wages and salaries rose by over 5% annually-adjusted in Q3. Importantly these wage increases aren’t leaching into inflation, which is just…

The Commerce Department reported that September new home sales increased 0.2% from August. The problem is the report has a reported margin of error of +/- 15.7%. September sales could have been up as much as 15.9% or down by 15.5%, no one knows! The month before sales were up 18%, but were they? In…