Archive for October 2014

The Friday File: Economists studying marriage find that the more lavish the wedding the shorter the marriage. To be precise, the chances of getting divorced are 60% higher if the wedding cost more than $20,000 compared to less costly nuptials. Similarly, all else equal, the chances of getting divorced rise by 30% if the engagement…

The total value of wages is $7.2 trillion. If we add 2.3 million workers/year to payrolls, the current rate, each of which earns the average wage of $42,498, total wages rise by $98 billion. However, a 1.36% increase in real wages for workers also equals $98 billion and explains why wage increase are so critically…

With Ebola worsening, Europe suddenly dramatically weakening, ISIS looking strong, China and Japan slowing, commodity prices tanking and QE ending, market stress is unsurprising. The end of QE and the subsequent rise in short-term rates would be sufficient to fuel volatility; now we’re in overdrive. My big fear, if Europe goes into recession, they have…

The euro’s dramatic fall against the dollar, due to Europe’s economic weakness, will reduce US inflationary pressures, hurt US exports and reduce equity values. Therefore, the Fed may wait longer before raising rates. However, the ECB is hoping the Fed raises rates faster thus weakening the euro more. As a result, any Fed delay in…

Today French economist Jean Tirole won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. His research focuses on industries dominated by a few large firms — like credit cards, banks, cable companies, Internet search — and how to regulate them. Because there are so few firms, they try to strategically manipulate each other and their regulators. Moreover,…

The Friday File: Last week a single lot of 114 bottles of Romanee-Conti burgundy wine sold at auction for $1.6 million, or $14,035/bottle or OMG, $2,550/glass! The price of $1.6 million broke the old record for a single lot of wine of $1.05 million for 50 cases of Chateau Mouton Rothschild 1982 sold in 2006.…

German industrial output fell 4% and manufacturing activity dropped 5.7% last month. Italy is back in recession, France’s GDP growth is 0%, the IMF is calling for European officials to “do more” and the risk of Europe entering a recession in the next six months is 38%. Given this bleak tableau, it’s baffling that German…

Beyond the terrible human toll, Ebola is exacting a huge financial cost. By 12/31/2014 Ebola will cost Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone $360 million; 3% of GDP – equivalent to $500 billion here in the US – and all of West Africa $5 billion. Depending on how fast it’s contained, the costs in 2015 range…

This past week was the 12th straight that the US dollar has strengthened against a basket of six major world currencies. As a result, the price of oil has been falling. As oil is quoted in US dollars, as currencies weaken against it, oil becomes increasingly expensive in those currencies. Other reasons include massive increases…

Last Friday’s employment data had something for everyone. Payrolls grew by a whopping 248,000, the unemployment rate plummeted to 5.9%, its lowest level since 7/08, and the number of involuntary part-time workers declined. But the labor force participation rate fell from 62.8% to 62.7%, average hourly earnings fell last month and are up only 2%…