Archive for January 2011
Bulging Balance Sheet
In the past 3 years, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded by $1.5 trillion yet nominal GDP has managed to rise by only $500 billion. Moreover, the U.S. public debt has exploded by about $5 trillion over that same time frame. This means that while the USA is 244 years old, over 1/3 of…
Read MoreMoney, Money, Money….
Despite recent enthusiasm real incomes are under pressure. With the 0.5% hike in the December U.S. CPI, real wages fell 0.4% and have fallen in 3 of the 4 last four months. The pace over the past 6 months is now running just 0.15% above zero; way below the 3.6% trend of mid-2010 & the…
Read MoreThe stock market is Too High
Measures of investor sentiment are irrational―the bear share in the latest Investor Intelligence poll is down to 19.1% from 20.5% last week. The bull camp is all the way up to 57.3% from 54.5%. Back on Labor Day, the Investor Intelligence survey flashed 29.4% bulls and 37.7% bears. Now, with 20/20 hindsight, we know what…
Read MoreDecennial Census
From the recently released Decennial Census we see that 7 of the 9 states (AK FL NH NV SD TN TX WA WY) that do not levy an income-tax grew faster than the national average. And, the other two ND and NH had the fastest growth in their regions (Midwest and New England). Altogether 35%…
Read MoreLots of People are Asking Why…
If profits are booming why aren’t jobs plentiful? Well, from what I can tell the bulk of earnings this cycle were derived offshore and since U.S. companies get “dinged” on earnings they remit home what happens is that the foreign-derived income stays exactly where it is earned―abroad!! Fixing the corporate tax code will help. Anybody…
Read MoreCompanies Sad Strategies
In December’s employment Report, temp agency employment rose 16k, up now for five months in a row, & ended up accounting for about 30% of the total employment growth in the economy last year. Sadly, what was once a good leading indicator of future labor demand is now just a sign of the times―a “just…
Read MoreCredit Default Swamps
Based on my calculations, credit default swaps are trading as if Greece has a 70% chance of defaulting, 50% for Ireland, 40% for Portugal and 30% for Spain. Both Greece and Ireland are paying over 80% of their export revenues towards external debt payments which totally unsustainable. After Portugal, Spain is next, then maybe Belgium.…
Read More3 Major Points in Yesterday’s Employment Report
1) Workweek didn’t move; it’s stuck at 34.3 hours for the 3rd straight month. History says hours lead bodies so as a leading indicator there isn’t much evidence of improving labor demand 2) State & local governments are downsizing with 20k net job losses 3) Personal income data was very disappointing with average hourly earnings…
Read MoreDeceptive Decline
Today’s decline in the unemployment rate is deceptive. It shows is that people have stopped looking for jobs. The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% last month and is way off its all time high of 67.3% of early 2000. Had the CLFPR remained unchanged, the unemployment rate would now be about 13.4%
Read MoreHello? The Irish election in March
The Irish election in March ― I don’t think this is on the radar screen. The point worth making is that if the opposition party wins, and presses for a debt restructuring, the story isn’t going to end there. The real question from there would be what other countries would follow suit ― this to…
Read More